Saturday, December 23, 2006

In the scrum - fantasy basketball pickups

Nenad Krstic out for the year - Mikki Moore now becomes a worthy pickup. He'll not be an all-star, but he may approach a double-double territory. The Net's other options are Collins and the ancient Uncle Cliffy and a rookie, Josh Boone.

Rashard Lewis out for two months - Mickael Gelabale, who is averaging 10 points a game in his last five, is a long-armed, active and athletic rookie from France who is going to benefit from this opportunity. Everyone knows about Damien Wilkins. Consider taking the chance in deeper leagues on this guy. He makes his shots within the flow of the offense. Warning - this guy is not going to get a lot of assists. He is points and rebounds and may add a few steals and blocks once he starts to get burn.

The Portland situation - Now that Brandon Roy is back, he'll be getting major minutes. Nate is too smart to bench Jarrett Jack or Zach and Travis Outlaw is becoming a real force. So who suffers? One, Martell Webster is going to lose his starting spot to Roy and a lot of his minutes. Two, Ime Udoka is likely going to lose time as a result of the scramble for minutes among the mid-sized players. Conclusion? If you own either Webster or Udoka, you will watch their production like a hawk and look for a swap-out for another FA when you figure out which of them is getting the shaft, if not both. This will cut into the burn of other Portland guards, but other than Juan Dixon in a deep league you don't own any of them anyway, right?

Denver - Fascinating situation! AI and Boykins looked like they had played together for years in their first game together. The problem is, two midget guards is a great problem defensively. The other problem? Boykins is the only real point on the roster. Iverson is more of a shooting guard, really. I am sure that 'Melo and AI will do well together and I am sure that Camby will go back to the same level of production once he returns. The issue is, how much value does J R Smith lose and how much can Boykins play?

The Answer is that Iverson is going to be pumped up by this opportunity and help make Denver a handful even with the diminuitive Boykins running at the point. I think George Karl can live with a Boykins when he has an eraser like Camby at the basket. I think that Smith will get opportunities as well. There will be times when Karl plays the three of them together. So don't drop either of these players.

Possibly Denver will look for a trade to obtain a taller point guard, ala an Earl Watson. I hope not, because I think that the Boykins-Smith-Iverson triumverate works in an uptempo environment.

Bigs like Evans and Najera will, in the long run, lose a bit of playing time. Nene will get the minutes that Camby is on the bench and Kleiza will get some time that Evans or Najera will lose because he fits better in the frantic post-Iverson offense that Karl will want to run. Look to drop Evans or Najera if you have them for another FA forward if possible, because after Denver gets to full strength they are likely to become a bit less productive.

Philadelphia - Willie Green is fool's gold, IMHO. I think he will hurt your shooting percentage too much to gleefully grab off of the FA pile. I think Iggy and Sam and Korver will uptick for their owners, while it looks like something is up with CWebb. Will he get moved? It is very possible. The situation with people like Rodney Carney depends largely on what happens with Webber and it is too early to call right now.

Boston - Does this team have even one point guard worth discussing? Yech! Portland was so smart to dump Telfair on this team. Both Gerald Green and Tony Allen are worth owning in most leagues while Paul Pierce is injured and out. Perkins coming back puts Kandi's butt back on the bench but if Doc Rivers has a brain Al Jefferson will keep getting minutes. Ryan Gomes will keep getting time as well. When Wally gets back, get ready to drop either Green or Allen, depending on what Doc does. Be cautious about Perkins, who may be a force but is still raw and foul-prone and the owner of bad percentages.

The Celtics are hard to figure because Doc's mind is hard to read. What does he really want out of this team and what pace does he want to maintain? IMHO, Sea Bass should grab a seat and be a change-of-pace reserve and Delonte should start at the point. Jefferson, Gomes and Perkins would be the front line starters along with Pierce. Wally would be my sixth man, getting more minutes than Perkins during the course of the game, and Allen and Green would be my 7-8 men. Telfair and Rondo would compete for the backup point minutes and Scalabrine might get 5-6 minutes a game but I might lean more towards Powe. I would point a shotgun at Kandi if he tried to get off of the bench.

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