Tuesday, January 09, 2007

The NBA Walking Wounded with Medicinal Treatments Included

Back from a long holiday hiatus...

Rashard Lewis, Chauncey Billups, Michael Redd, Paul Pierce, Chris Paul, Josh Smith, Gerald Wallace, Yao Ming, Jason Richardson, Peja Stojakovic, Chris Webber, Brevin Knight, Charlie Villanueva, Nenad Krstic, Shaquille O'Neal, Steve Francis, Quentin Richardson, Bobby Simmons, David West, Kwame Brown, Kenyon Martin, Francisco Elson, Tyronn Lue, Etan Thomas, Chris Mihm, Theo Ratliff, Rashad McCants and Darius Miles are among the myriad NBA players currently down for the injury count. Among the injured are those who were having all-star caliber seasons or have been all-stars in the recent past.

The rash of injuries has put new pressures on fantasy owners this year. If you are in a dynasty league, cutting a Nenad Krstic likely means another owner picks him up and you lose him, not just for the season, but for the rest of his career. But if you are trying for the championship this year, perhaps you can’t afford to give up a roster spot to a player who is out until next year. Certainly in a redraft league it is likely unwise to hold on to a player who may not be back even after the break. Lots of tough decisions to be made.

Great players who will be back within 4-6 weeks must be kept or traded for value!

I don’t care what league you are in, to cut a Redd or a ‘Shard in order to plug in a Matt Carroll or a Travis Outlaw for awhile is extremely foolish. Another owner will pick the star up and use him to beat you in the playoffs. Be patient with those two players and that goes for most of the top players on the above list.

On the other hand, if you still have Bobby Simmons or Darius Miles or Theo Ratliff or Chris Mihm on your roster, you should probably dump them! They don’t have all that much upside even when and if they do return to the NBA and it isn’t likely going to happen this season. Kenyon Martin and Rashad McCants are also obvious dumpees if you still are clinging to them. In very, very deep leagues you might hang onto Etan Thomas and Tyronn Lue and Francisco Elson if there are no good alternatives, since they should be back before too long. All three of them are going to face a fight for minutes (with Haywood, Claxton and Oberto, respectively) upon their return, though, so a word to the wise there.

Keep in all league formats
Lewis, Redd, Billups, Pierce, Paul, Smith, Wallace, Ming.

Keep in most league formats according to the situation
Knight, West, Brown, Richardson (who is due back any day).

Drop in most league formats but not dynasty
Stojakovic, O’Neal, Krstic, Francis, Villaneuva.

David West and Charlie Villaneuva merit special mention. West has a condition that may well clear up and allow him to play sometime around the all-star break, so his situation bears watching. He should be picked up when it appears he will be close to being activated as he will obviously have a good chance at being productive in the NOK lineup when healthy. Charlie V, on the other hand, appears headed for surgery and there is a chance he will be out for the rest of the season.

News flash: You may recall that I recommended taking Mickael Gelabale in deep leagues as a future investment? He got his first start in Seattle on the 6th and looked good. Fantasy players who took Diaw and Pietrus when they were just beginning to get minutes wound up being rewarded with a surprisingly good player. Gelabale looks like another Frenchman in the same mold. He may not do a lot this season, but as I said, if you have a deep league/dynasty situation he could be worth a roster spot for you.

Flavors of the month

These players may have been dropped or ignored earlier in the year but are hot currently....

Dikembe Mutombo will be a source for rebounds and blocks while Yao is sidelined.

Matt Carroll is finding a lot of PT with both Wallace and Knight out, flinging in threes and helping your FT% as well as point totals.

Damon Stoudamire is thriving in the new uptempo Memphis style. In fact, Stromile Swift (don't pelt me with rocks!) might actually pan out this time! Memphis trying to go all Phoenix on us means that Rudy Gay and Alexander Johnson and Hakim Warrick are marginal fantasy players who could be worth owning now as well...but only a seance is likely to raise the game of Eddie Jones, so don't go crazy!

Brian Skinner should get a lot of burn while Redd (and Charlie V.) is out, compiling blocks and rebounds. I would mention Charlie Bell and Reuben Patterson, but those guys aren't likely on the FA list at the moment. But if they are, better get them now while the getting is good!

Speedy Claxton has bad percentages but he'll get a ton of steals, enough to consider owning now. He was originally supposed to get more minutes than Lue anyway, so when Lue comes back it is going to be more at the expense of Salim than Speedy.

Jannero Pargo will be a poor man's Chris Paul for probably another month or so. You already know about him and Rasual Butler, right? But Bobby Jackson is rumored to be back as well. The trouble with Bobby is, when he is healthy, it is just the transition time between injuries.

Jason Kapono is starting for Miami right now and he can shoot the rock! He's displaced Dorrell Wright in the starting lineup for now. I like Wright better on a dynasty team but in a redraft league right now you are better off going with Kapono in almost every case.

Then there is Seattle. Many of us grabbed Damien Wilkins when the Ray Allen/Rashard Lewis injury bug hit, and with good reason. But the Sonics keep losing, so suddenly Ridnour and Wilkins are coming off the bench in favor of Gelabale and Watson! Coach Hill must be desperate, stupid or crazy to play Luke Ridnour fewer than 24 minutes in a game, but be that as it may this all means confusion for fantasy basketball wonks such as myself. Hill is playing Collison more and Petro a lot less as well, apparently, and who knows what he'll do next? Alas, not me. But in leagues in which I own Ridnour or Wilkins I am keeping them and riding out the storm!

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