So Brady Quinn didn't get picked by the Oakland Raiders at number one and Cleveland went with a possible All-Pro Left Tackle at number three. The shock was number nine as Miami took a return specialist instead of Quinn. Cam Cameron, erstwhile Dolphin team-builder, was quoted as saying that "We didn't pick Ted Ginn, we took the entire Ginn family." Great. I bet Mrs. Ginn doesn't go over the middle, either. In any event, Brady Quinn looked certain to drop to the Chiefs at number twenty-three until Cleveland jumped up and traded for the pick just before Kansas City to grab him. Result? Cleveland could have three All-Pro caliber players from their first three picks and Dallas (their trading partner) should have a killer 2008 draft. Miami may have to count on the the next Chris Weinke, John Beck, to get the ball to their receivers if Culpepper is, indeed, out the door and they cannot grab the remains of Trent Green.
I could go on about how Carolina consistently got value in their early picks, or why Chicago continues to succeed by going against the grain, or whether Oakland will win in 2009 as a result of their 2007 picks or how come it is that Houston can't figure out what the heck they are doing? Or, I could do this:
Fantasy football impact of 2007 NFL draft
So you are in a dynasty league and every year you have a rookie draft just like the NFL. Unless you are in an IDP league, only four positions interest you: QB, RB, WR and TE. So let's talk...
Quarterback:
There should be two instant starters in this year's draft.
Best Pick - Oakland's new coach Lane Kiffin wants to redo the offense. The Raiders took a QB who they think can be a real star, JaMarcus Russell. They also took a TE, an OT, a WR and a RB in the first 100 picks of the NFL draft. Russell will have to fall on his face not to win the starting job here. He'll make too many mistakes to be a good fantasy starter but you definitely want him for your bench.
Best PickII - Brady Quinn. He has the mental and physical abilities to be a star. Russell is more likely to be a record-breaker. Quinn is less likely to be a flop, though. He is the other rookie QB who will have to really step on it to avoid getting a starting nod. It is 60-40 that Quinn is worth more in the fantasy realm in his first season.
Deep picks - Drew Stanton in Detroit and Trent Edwards in Buffalo could well develop into starters. Both players should begin the year as the number two on their respective teams and therefore one injury away from producing fantasy points. Troy Smith will serve an apprenticeship as a McNair-in-training. Maybe it will rub off 3-4 years down the road?
Dumb picks - John Beck is already 26 years old. I'm not impressed. Also, what the heck is wrong in Philly? Kevin Kolb???!!! Don't waste a pick on him!
Running Backs:
The most valuable commodity in most fantasy football setups, but this year's draft is very weak.
Best pick for 2007- Marshawn Lynch of Buffalo. Only Anthony Thomas stands between Lynch and a starting role. He has the talent and the opportunity to exceed 1,000 yards rushing in his first season. Unless, of course, he plans on choking any more coeds.
Best player going forward - Adrian Peterson of Minnesota. But he is likely in the dreaded RBBC (running back by committee) with Chester Taylor. Still, with a young quarterback and inconsistent receivers, you can expect Minny to run a lot. Peterson ought to be good for 700 yards and 6 scores even as the backup guy. He's just too good to sit on the bench.
Opportunity guys - Brandon Jackson has Vernand Morency to beat out in Green Bay. Chris Henry has to deal with LenDale White in Tennessee. Neither rookie has a guarantee of a starting job. If you are desperate for rookie help at running back, these guys are dice rolls. But Morency isn't established and White was a flop last year so if you need an RB and these guys are the best shot you have, you have a puncher's chance.
Part-timers - Garrett Wolfe has a shot at being the third-down/change-of-pace back. In other words, a poor man's Reggie Bush in a Bear uniform. Tony Hunt could become a goal-line and short yardage back for Philadelphia, vulturing a few touchdowns away from Brian Westbrook.
Hurry up and wait - Kenny Irons (Bengals) and Antonio Pittman (Saints) are good prospects blocked by successful starters. Poor Pittman is behind Reggie AND Deuce, plus Aaron Stecker ain't half bad, either. In Cincy, Rudi is the workhorse and Chris Perry has the change-of-pace thing covered, so Irons will have to contend with Kenny Watson for a few mercy carries.
Fools gold- Brian Leonard of the Rams is a big back behind Stephen Jackson. Yeah, that is gonna work out. Not. Lorenzo Booker might be more relevant if the Fish weren't bringing Ricky Williams back. But they are... Both these guys better be ready to go to war on special teams!
Just because - Michael Bush is a deep sleeper pick, a guy who was right up there with Peterson before he broke his leg. Oakland has Jordan and Rhodes ahead of him this year, but next year????
Wide Receivers:
There's only one number one!
Best pick - Imagine Randy Moss or Terrell Owens with the head properly attached. This is Calvin Johnson. He's big and fast and talented. He is in a Mike Martz offense. He is going to start from day one and he is going to produce right away. No brainer pick!
Good picks - Dwayne Bowe has a great shot to start for Kansas City. San Diego sees Craig Davis as a producer for them even in year one. Although I thought Indy reached for Anthony Gonzalez, he will get the first shot as slot receiver for them. Manning will get him the ball 40 times there. Dwayne Jarrett should be the third receiver for Carolina behind Keyshawn and Steve Smith, so he may see upwards of 40 balls as well.
Take a chance on - Ted Ginn of Miami, if your league includes return yardage in the offensive totals. I'm not sold on him as a receiver other than just providing a deep threat, but he is a terrific return guy.
For future reference - Robert Meachem (New Orleans) and Steve Smith (New York) are the kind of guys who win jobs and put up numbers by year three. It takes injuries for either of them to do much in year one. But if the injuries come, they could be 50 catch guys, either of them, even as rookies. The talent is there.
Sleeper - Green Bay took Virginia Tech's David Clowney in round five. He has tools, so maybe he gets a shot sometimes. Heck, Favre will still want to throw it around the yard. Don't you kind of like the sound of Favre-to-Clowney, touchdown?
Tight Ends:
Not entirely an afterthought.
Best pick - Greg Olsen, Bears. Chicago has a "Blocking TE" in John Gilmore, and a "Starting TE" in the oft-injured Desmond Clark. Now they have a "Receiving TE" in Olsen. Think on this: Rex Grossman loves to go deep. Olsen can go deep. Yep. He'll make you some points.
Good pick - Oakland took a young TE as a safety valve for their young QB. Zach Miller is a seam-finding possesion-style TE who should fit nicely into Kiffin's offensive plans. He can block a little, too.
Sleeper pick - Ben Patrick, Arizona. Patrick is one of those H-back/Fullback/Tight End guys. Think Chris Cooley. Leonard Pope hasn't set the world on fire as the starter for the Cards. I can see Leinert finding a comfort zone with this Patrick guy around midseason and thereby making him fantasy relevant as a rookie.
Monday, April 30, 2007
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Derek Jeter needs a new glove! (Or, Juan Uribe needs a new press agent)!
Who was awarded (notice I didn't say, "won") the last three Gold Gloves for American League Shortstop? Why, it was that Yankee of Yankees, Derek Jeter! That this is a great travesty is certain, to those who observe baseball carefully and I would like to point out some reasons why.
Backstory- The holder of the Gold Glove at Shortstop for both 2002 and 2003 was a fellow by the name of Alex Rodriguez. You probably know him, hits lots of homers, is razzed by Yankee fans whenever he fails to play like Babe Ruth and Willie Mays put together? Yeah, him. ARod had been playing short for the Mariners and then the Texas Rangers but once he signed on the dotted line, the Yanks had a problem. What to do with Jeter? After all, Jeter was not much better than an average shortstop, ARod was a Gold Glover....the solution? Put the good shortstop at third, where he became a mediocre fielder, and leave the mediocre fielder at short. What? Most organizations would keep the superior player at the premium position and let Jeter move to third. But apparently Derek's ego was at stake.
In any event, all is well, for now Jeter gets the Gold Gloves and the Yankees look like they were pretty darned smart! NOT!
What makes a fielder valuable? I think this is a viable question. Is it a guy who "makes all the routine plays" with few errors? Is fielding percentage our best clue? I think not. In terms of infielders, the pitcher wants his fielders to 1) get to every ball he can grab, 2) convert that chance into an out, and 3) if possible, turn it into two out by means of a double-play.
Back in the mid-70's, the two rival shortstops for the Phils and the Reds were Larry Bowa (GG in '72 & '78) and Davey Concepcion (GG '74-'77 & '79). On season, Larry began to call Davey, "Elmer" and, finally, Concepcion asked him why?
"Because every time I look at the Reds boxscore.' Bowa replied. 'I see E - Concepcion!"
Funny but true. Concepcion usually made more errors than Bowa and had a lower fielding percentage. Still, Davey was above average in percentage. Bowa had a much better percentage than Concepcion, but got to far fewer balls and participated in fewer double plays. Who was better for their team? I suggest that according to the figures, in 100 games Dave Concepcion would convert 41 balls into outs that the average shortstop would miss, while Bowa would only convert 26 of them. That outweighs the balls that Concepcion got to that he bobbled in my opinion.
What does this have to do with Jeter? Well, I took a look at fielding stats for the year 2006 and compared range factors, fielding percentages and double plays for all shortstops who could be considered full-time players (120 games or more in 2006). I thought I would find, easily, two or three shortstops who outperformed Jeter. But I was way off. In fact, I could only find one shortstop in the entire American League who had worse defensive numbers than Jeter! (Hello, Carlos Guillen, future Tiger first-baseman). I found this to be astounding!
Derek Jeter may have been the best all-around shortstop in the AL last year because he is outstanding as both a hitter and a baserunner. He is so good at those two facets of the game they overshadow his mediocrity as a fielder. But his raw numbers make even Jhonny Peralta and Michael Young look good!
Okay, so I thought, well, maybe that was an aberration. I decided to check on the career totals of Jeter versus the guy he sent to third, ARod, plus some of the other rival shortstops in the AL. One thing Jeter could do, he could field with a decent percentage. Here are the career fielding percentages among players considered the best shortstops of the last few AL seasons compared to the total league averages of the years they've played:
Alex Rodriguez - .977 (league average .972)
Michael Young- .976 (league average .971)
Derek Jeter - .974 (league average .972)
Jhonny Peralta -.972 (league average .971)
Miguel Tejada - .970 (league average .972)
Carlos Guillen - .969 (league average .971)
So Jeter is in the middle of this crowd in percentages, which I believe is the lesser stat compared to range factor. So let's look at that! This is another rate stat, in this case, the number of outs accomplished per game.
Miguel Tejada - 4.61 (4.13)
Jhonny Peralta - 4.53 (4.10)
Alex Rodriguez - 4.42 (4.15)
Michael Young - 4.25 (4.10)
Derek Jeter - 4.08 (4.13)
Carlos Guillen - 4.04 (4.09)
Now, this is bad for Jeter and Guillen. I mean, the average shortstop includes guys like Troy Glaus who get stuck there for a few games, utility infielders, do-everything types like Chone Figgins, etc. Therefore the average shortstop wouldn't be considered an average day-after-day guy you want in the hole between third and second. Yet Guillen and Jeter both performed below that average!
By those numbers, if Tejada and ARod and Jeter all played 160 games, Rodriguez would make outs out of 51 batted balls that would safely get past Jeter. But then Tejada would get to another 26 more beyond that. So, if Rodriguez had higher fielding percentages than Jeter and got to way more baseballs, isn't he the better shortstop and shouldn't he be there instead of third? Also, maybe Jeter makes a couple less errors, is that worth the 77 outs per year Tejada gives you that Jeter can't make for you? Isn't Miggy getting the shaft and shouldn't he be getting the Gold Glove?
Well, you say, double plays are the "pitcher's friend", maybe Jeter turns a lot of those? Well, sad to say, no. In fact, Derek Jeter has never turned as many as 100 double plays in a season, a number accomplished by Tejada 7 times and by ARod 5 times. Heck, Peralta has done it and so has Young. Again, only the company of the aforementioned Guillen keeps Jeter from being alone in failure here. Double plays turned per game, career:
Alex Rodriguez - .6990
Miguel Tejada - .6702
Jhonny Peralta - .6667
Michael Young - .6280
Carlos Guillen - .5995
Derek Jeter - .5306
By fielding rates, it seems that ARod very likely deserved his Gold Gloves (and I looked a bit further, either he or Tejada should have beaten out Vizquel for the honor every year since at least 2000). Furthermore, Tejada looks like far and away the best shortstop out there defensively now, with Jeter battling Guillen for the title of worst shortstop!
But, how can this be???????
Question: Maybe Jeter plays with a lot of pitchers who are strikeout/flyball types and doesn't get many groundballs?
Answer: Well, ever hear of Chien-Ming Wang? Do guys on the Baltimore staff like Bedard and Cabrera and Louwen strike you as groundball pitchers? No way does a factor like that make such a dramatic difference, nope.
Question: You are using rates, how about a fielding system that uses totals as well???
Answer: Okay, I will present an alternate view. Fielding Win Shares!
Personally, I am more impressed with the raw numbers but here we go. I have the data from the last three years and that can only include Guillen, Tejada, Young and Jeter, since Alex moved to third in 2004 and Peralta became a regular in 2005. Again, I am only comparing the better known shortstops, those more likely to make the All-Star team.
Miguel Tejada - 18 win shares
Michael Young - 17.5
Derek Jeter - 17.5
Carlos Guillen - 12.2
I find that Tejada's 0.5 advantage over Jeter is rather mysterious when the stats make it look more like around 1.5 per year. Nevertheless...If we look at all regular AL shortstops in each year, Jeter finished 10th in 2006 and 6th in 2005. Only in 2004, which was far and away his best-ever year, did he finish in the top five, with a 3rd place finish behind Guzman of Minnesota and Crosby of Oakland. Uribe, Peralta, Cabrera, Scutaro and Tejada all finished ahead of him in 2005 and, in 2006, Peralta, Young, Cabrera, Uribe, Gonzalez, Betancourt, Tejada, Barlett and Scutaro finished ahead of him.
Zone Rating
"Zone Rating is the proportion of balls hit into a fielder's zone that he successfully converted into an out. Zone Rating was invented by John Dewan when he was CEO of Stats Inc. John is now the owner of Baseball Info Solutions, where he has revised the original Zone Rating calculation so that it now lists balls handled out of the zone (OOZ) separately (and doesn't include them in the ZR calculation) and doesn't give players extra credit for double plays (Stats had already made that change). We believe both changes improve the Zone Ratings substantially. You can read more about the revised Zone Ratings in John's Fielding Bible."
2004 American League - 9th, ahead of only Guillen and Berroa. Tejada was 5th.
2005 American League - 8th, ahead of Berroa and Young. Tejada was 5th.
2006 American League - 8th, ahead of Peralta, Berroa and Cabrera. Tejada was 6th.
By this measure, yes, Tejada is superior to the usual suspects among good hitting shortstops. Further research tells me that Juan Uribe should have won the last two Gold Gloves. But he won't because he isn't popular and isn't much of a hitter.
The truth about Derek Jeter is summed up by the excellent A Citizen's Blog, who has thus far presented a four-part series on fielding:
"Today defense is a tricky subject. It is undervalued by teams (see, my earlier comment about the differences between A-Rod and Adam Everett), and when people do focus on it, there are wildly differing opinions about what is, or is not, true. e.g.: Yankees fans and baseball traditionalists (e.g., Joe Morgan), believe that Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter is a defensive genius. His brilliant flip to home to catch Jeremy Giambi and prevent the A’s from scoring is part of the stock highlight reel on Jeter. But the sabremetric community has run the numbers and they indicate that Jeter is actually a below-average fielder. The fact that Baseball hands Derek Jeter a Gold Glove every season to signify their belief that he is the best at what he does, while the sabremetricians greet those gold gloves with derision and contempt, underscores the disconnect, the issues and problems with evaluating defense in baseball."
Back in the 50's and 60's there was a big (6'4"), slow, power-hitting first baseman named Dick Stuart. He had one all-star year and three times exceeded 30 homers and 110 RBI. But, alas, he was done in partly due to reputation. You see, he wasn't a good fielder at all, and while the average first baseman would successfully make 99 of 100 plays, Dick would make 98. Now this may not sound too bad, but with a regular first-sacker taking a lot of throws, this meant making maybe an extra 12-15 errors a year. In any event, poor Stuart was dubbed "Dr. Strangeglove" after a popular movie of the era and he never lived that down. By the time the 1964 movie came out, Stuart had gotten much better with the glove and was about average, compared to the horror he was in his first 3-4 seasons. But the new nickname stuck and his playing time and effectiveness both dropped off sharply. Did the disenhanced reputation effect him, his managers, or what? I don't know but he fell off in 1965 and never played regularly again.
I'm not saying that Derek Jeter is so bad that we should begin calling him "clank" or anything like that. If there is a Dr. Strangelove award for American League shortstops, then either Guillen or Berroa should have won that award the last couple of years. But is Derek Jeter a Gold Glover? Not if it means that he is particularly good!
Backstory- The holder of the Gold Glove at Shortstop for both 2002 and 2003 was a fellow by the name of Alex Rodriguez. You probably know him, hits lots of homers, is razzed by Yankee fans whenever he fails to play like Babe Ruth and Willie Mays put together? Yeah, him. ARod had been playing short for the Mariners and then the Texas Rangers but once he signed on the dotted line, the Yanks had a problem. What to do with Jeter? After all, Jeter was not much better than an average shortstop, ARod was a Gold Glover....the solution? Put the good shortstop at third, where he became a mediocre fielder, and leave the mediocre fielder at short. What? Most organizations would keep the superior player at the premium position and let Jeter move to third. But apparently Derek's ego was at stake.
In any event, all is well, for now Jeter gets the Gold Gloves and the Yankees look like they were pretty darned smart! NOT!
What makes a fielder valuable? I think this is a viable question. Is it a guy who "makes all the routine plays" with few errors? Is fielding percentage our best clue? I think not. In terms of infielders, the pitcher wants his fielders to 1) get to every ball he can grab, 2) convert that chance into an out, and 3) if possible, turn it into two out by means of a double-play.
Back in the mid-70's, the two rival shortstops for the Phils and the Reds were Larry Bowa (GG in '72 & '78) and Davey Concepcion (GG '74-'77 & '79). On season, Larry began to call Davey, "Elmer" and, finally, Concepcion asked him why?
"Because every time I look at the Reds boxscore.' Bowa replied. 'I see E - Concepcion!"
Funny but true. Concepcion usually made more errors than Bowa and had a lower fielding percentage. Still, Davey was above average in percentage. Bowa had a much better percentage than Concepcion, but got to far fewer balls and participated in fewer double plays. Who was better for their team? I suggest that according to the figures, in 100 games Dave Concepcion would convert 41 balls into outs that the average shortstop would miss, while Bowa would only convert 26 of them. That outweighs the balls that Concepcion got to that he bobbled in my opinion.
What does this have to do with Jeter? Well, I took a look at fielding stats for the year 2006 and compared range factors, fielding percentages and double plays for all shortstops who could be considered full-time players (120 games or more in 2006). I thought I would find, easily, two or three shortstops who outperformed Jeter. But I was way off. In fact, I could only find one shortstop in the entire American League who had worse defensive numbers than Jeter! (Hello, Carlos Guillen, future Tiger first-baseman). I found this to be astounding!
Derek Jeter may have been the best all-around shortstop in the AL last year because he is outstanding as both a hitter and a baserunner. He is so good at those two facets of the game they overshadow his mediocrity as a fielder. But his raw numbers make even Jhonny Peralta and Michael Young look good!
Okay, so I thought, well, maybe that was an aberration. I decided to check on the career totals of Jeter versus the guy he sent to third, ARod, plus some of the other rival shortstops in the AL. One thing Jeter could do, he could field with a decent percentage. Here are the career fielding percentages among players considered the best shortstops of the last few AL seasons compared to the total league averages of the years they've played:
Alex Rodriguez - .977 (league average .972)
Michael Young- .976 (league average .971)
Derek Jeter - .974 (league average .972)
Jhonny Peralta -.972 (league average .971)
Miguel Tejada - .970 (league average .972)
Carlos Guillen - .969 (league average .971)
So Jeter is in the middle of this crowd in percentages, which I believe is the lesser stat compared to range factor. So let's look at that! This is another rate stat, in this case, the number of outs accomplished per game.
Miguel Tejada - 4.61 (4.13)
Jhonny Peralta - 4.53 (4.10)
Alex Rodriguez - 4.42 (4.15)
Michael Young - 4.25 (4.10)
Derek Jeter - 4.08 (4.13)
Carlos Guillen - 4.04 (4.09)
Now, this is bad for Jeter and Guillen. I mean, the average shortstop includes guys like Troy Glaus who get stuck there for a few games, utility infielders, do-everything types like Chone Figgins, etc. Therefore the average shortstop wouldn't be considered an average day-after-day guy you want in the hole between third and second. Yet Guillen and Jeter both performed below that average!
By those numbers, if Tejada and ARod and Jeter all played 160 games, Rodriguez would make outs out of 51 batted balls that would safely get past Jeter. But then Tejada would get to another 26 more beyond that. So, if Rodriguez had higher fielding percentages than Jeter and got to way more baseballs, isn't he the better shortstop and shouldn't he be there instead of third? Also, maybe Jeter makes a couple less errors, is that worth the 77 outs per year Tejada gives you that Jeter can't make for you? Isn't Miggy getting the shaft and shouldn't he be getting the Gold Glove?
Well, you say, double plays are the "pitcher's friend", maybe Jeter turns a lot of those? Well, sad to say, no. In fact, Derek Jeter has never turned as many as 100 double plays in a season, a number accomplished by Tejada 7 times and by ARod 5 times. Heck, Peralta has done it and so has Young. Again, only the company of the aforementioned Guillen keeps Jeter from being alone in failure here. Double plays turned per game, career:
Alex Rodriguez - .6990
Miguel Tejada - .6702
Jhonny Peralta - .6667
Michael Young - .6280
Carlos Guillen - .5995
Derek Jeter - .5306
By fielding rates, it seems that ARod very likely deserved his Gold Gloves (and I looked a bit further, either he or Tejada should have beaten out Vizquel for the honor every year since at least 2000). Furthermore, Tejada looks like far and away the best shortstop out there defensively now, with Jeter battling Guillen for the title of worst shortstop!
But, how can this be???????
Question: Maybe Jeter plays with a lot of pitchers who are strikeout/flyball types and doesn't get many groundballs?
Answer: Well, ever hear of Chien-Ming Wang? Do guys on the Baltimore staff like Bedard and Cabrera and Louwen strike you as groundball pitchers? No way does a factor like that make such a dramatic difference, nope.
Question: You are using rates, how about a fielding system that uses totals as well???
Answer: Okay, I will present an alternate view. Fielding Win Shares!
Personally, I am more impressed with the raw numbers but here we go. I have the data from the last three years and that can only include Guillen, Tejada, Young and Jeter, since Alex moved to third in 2004 and Peralta became a regular in 2005. Again, I am only comparing the better known shortstops, those more likely to make the All-Star team.
Miguel Tejada - 18 win shares
Michael Young - 17.5
Derek Jeter - 17.5
Carlos Guillen - 12.2
I find that Tejada's 0.5 advantage over Jeter is rather mysterious when the stats make it look more like around 1.5 per year. Nevertheless...If we look at all regular AL shortstops in each year, Jeter finished 10th in 2006 and 6th in 2005. Only in 2004, which was far and away his best-ever year, did he finish in the top five, with a 3rd place finish behind Guzman of Minnesota and Crosby of Oakland. Uribe, Peralta, Cabrera, Scutaro and Tejada all finished ahead of him in 2005 and, in 2006, Peralta, Young, Cabrera, Uribe, Gonzalez, Betancourt, Tejada, Barlett and Scutaro finished ahead of him.
Zone Rating
"Zone Rating is the proportion of balls hit into a fielder's zone that he successfully converted into an out. Zone Rating was invented by John Dewan when he was CEO of Stats Inc. John is now the owner of Baseball Info Solutions, where he has revised the original Zone Rating calculation so that it now lists balls handled out of the zone (OOZ) separately (and doesn't include them in the ZR calculation) and doesn't give players extra credit for double plays (Stats had already made that change). We believe both changes improve the Zone Ratings substantially. You can read more about the revised Zone Ratings in John's Fielding Bible."
2004 American League - 9th, ahead of only Guillen and Berroa. Tejada was 5th.
2005 American League - 8th, ahead of Berroa and Young. Tejada was 5th.
2006 American League - 8th, ahead of Peralta, Berroa and Cabrera. Tejada was 6th.
By this measure, yes, Tejada is superior to the usual suspects among good hitting shortstops. Further research tells me that Juan Uribe should have won the last two Gold Gloves. But he won't because he isn't popular and isn't much of a hitter.
The truth about Derek Jeter is summed up by the excellent A Citizen's Blog, who has thus far presented a four-part series on fielding:
"Today defense is a tricky subject. It is undervalued by teams (see, my earlier comment about the differences between A-Rod and Adam Everett), and when people do focus on it, there are wildly differing opinions about what is, or is not, true. e.g.: Yankees fans and baseball traditionalists (e.g., Joe Morgan), believe that Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter is a defensive genius. His brilliant flip to home to catch Jeremy Giambi and prevent the A’s from scoring is part of the stock highlight reel on Jeter. But the sabremetric community has run the numbers and they indicate that Jeter is actually a below-average fielder. The fact that Baseball hands Derek Jeter a Gold Glove every season to signify their belief that he is the best at what he does, while the sabremetricians greet those gold gloves with derision and contempt, underscores the disconnect, the issues and problems with evaluating defense in baseball."
Back in the 50's and 60's there was a big (6'4"), slow, power-hitting first baseman named Dick Stuart. He had one all-star year and three times exceeded 30 homers and 110 RBI. But, alas, he was done in partly due to reputation. You see, he wasn't a good fielder at all, and while the average first baseman would successfully make 99 of 100 plays, Dick would make 98. Now this may not sound too bad, but with a regular first-sacker taking a lot of throws, this meant making maybe an extra 12-15 errors a year. In any event, poor Stuart was dubbed "Dr. Strangeglove" after a popular movie of the era and he never lived that down. By the time the 1964 movie came out, Stuart had gotten much better with the glove and was about average, compared to the horror he was in his first 3-4 seasons. But the new nickname stuck and his playing time and effectiveness both dropped off sharply. Did the disenhanced reputation effect him, his managers, or what? I don't know but he fell off in 1965 and never played regularly again.
I'm not saying that Derek Jeter is so bad that we should begin calling him "clank" or anything like that. If there is a Dr. Strangelove award for American League shortstops, then either Guillen or Berroa should have won that award the last couple of years. But is Derek Jeter a Gold Glover? Not if it means that he is particularly good!
True Confessions: My Black Wednesday
It was Black Wednesday for the Chicago Bulls. They lost the last game of the season to the New Jersey Nets, thus dropping from the #2 seed and homecourt advantage versus the injury-depleted Wizards, to the #5 seed and a visiting date with defending champion Miami.
It was Black Wednesday for Joey Crawford, who saw the last day of the last season he'll EVER ref an NBA game go by the boards. Book it, Crawford is done.
It was Black Wednesday for the LA Clippers, who must have known that Golden State was walloping the Portland Trail Blazers and proceeded to get beat by the Hornets, adding insult to injury. They had the playoffs in their back pocket, but then they lost AT HOME to the Kings(!) and gave the edge to the Warriors and those guys never looked back.
It was also Black Wednesday for me, with so many teams in the fantasy basketball playoffs and so many bitter losses...in the spirit of true disclosure, I will share my fate with the world.
ROTO: I played in two Fantasy King's redraft leagues and one FK keeper league. I, Radar, won one of the redraft leagues (#1693-16 teams) and finished 5th in the other one, the "Best of" league(#13706-12 teams). I guess fifth place will qualify me for that one again next year, but fifth isn't too good. Congratulations to the winners of the other two leagues, Blue and Dutch, respectively.
The keeper league? I took over a three-year-old team abandoned by an owner who had made bad decisions and brilliantly took it all the way to...11th place! Wow. In an 11-team league(#2324-11 teams)! The good news? I get the first draft choice next year.
Roto Totals= 3 teams, 1 championship, 1 top-three finish.
Head2Head: I played in nine leagues, eight leagues either Fantasy Kings or FK/Rotokingdom leagues and one league run by an FK buddy each year. The results:
#699-16 teams-FK vs RK redraft-Finished 4th. DAtaris17 won this one
#35006-10 teams-dynasty- Lost in finals, 4-5, to SC BallerJ
#4036-12 teams-redraft- Lost in finals, 4-5, to ih8temichigan
#48497-12 teams-keeper-Finished 5th. SC BallerJ won this one, too.
#47162-12 teams-keeper-Radar Won in finals, 7-2 over CYoshi
#16267-14 teams-salary-Finished 5th. Dutch won this one.
#2332-16 teams-redraft-Finished 3rd. Payton won this one
#13876-12 teams-redraft-Radar Won in finals, 7-2 over Dutch
#32713-10 teams-dynasty-Lost in finals, 4-5, to Santa
(That last one really hurt, because I knew I had the best team. But every time I would play Dirk and Josh Howard, the Little General would bench them and every time I started them, he didn't play 'em. I also benched Bosh in the last game because, when I played him previously, Mitchell benched him. I also started Iverson but Karl shut him down. I just barely lost a couple of cats that I would have one if just once, for instance, Avery Johnson would have played his stupid players! AAAAArgh!)
H2H Totals- 9 teams (all 9 made playoffs), 2 championships, 6 top-three finishes.
Combined Totals- 12 teams, 3 championships, 7 top-three finishes.
But I lost three finals by the painful 4-5 score, plus lost a playoff for third place by a 4-5 score. It was a year I just couldn't quite get over the hump when I had a chance to really have a kick-butt season. On the other hand, I won way more than my share against veteran fantasy players, so I suppose the season was still a success...just not what I hoped it would be.
~~~~~~~
Fantasy Kings versus RotoKingdom
Final standings regular season
Fantasykings 777-723-12
Rotokingdom 720-774-18
Top Six individual finishers
DAtaris17 - Champ (RK)
Dutch- 2nd (FK)
The Doorknobman - 3rd (RK)
Radar - 4th (FK)
Santa - 5th (FK)
Mikl - 6th (FK)
Congratulations to the overall champion DAtaris17, and to the winning forum, Fantasy Kings!!!
~~~~~~~
My fearless playoff predictions for round one:
Pistons over Magic (ya think?)
Cavs over Wizards (ya think?)
Raptors over Nets (I was gonna pick Nets, but Bargnani is back)
Bulls over Heat (everybody should want to watch this one!)
Mavs over Warriors (But GS is better than three teams in the East)
Suns over Lakers (Kobe vs world)
Spurs over Nuggets (Hmmm. Nuggs could surprise me)
Rockets over Jazz (won't be pretty either way)
The first two Eastern Conference series should be largely unwatchable. Pistons and Cavs have no business even coming close to losing. The other two are your basic coin flips. Nets know the playoffs but the Raps are a better team and with home court. The Bulls are better than the Heat but lost that last game so that lost momentum might kill them off.
But every Western Conference matchup has some cache. Even the Warriors are playing great ball now and it is a shame for them that they wind up playing Dallas. I was rooting for the Lakers to lose and to see a Suns-Warriors first round matchup. C'mon, 139-136!
It was Black Wednesday for Joey Crawford, who saw the last day of the last season he'll EVER ref an NBA game go by the boards. Book it, Crawford is done.
It was Black Wednesday for the LA Clippers, who must have known that Golden State was walloping the Portland Trail Blazers and proceeded to get beat by the Hornets, adding insult to injury. They had the playoffs in their back pocket, but then they lost AT HOME to the Kings(!) and gave the edge to the Warriors and those guys never looked back.
It was also Black Wednesday for me, with so many teams in the fantasy basketball playoffs and so many bitter losses...in the spirit of true disclosure, I will share my fate with the world.
ROTO: I played in two Fantasy King's redraft leagues and one FK keeper league. I, Radar, won one of the redraft leagues (#1693-16 teams) and finished 5th in the other one, the "Best of" league(#13706-12 teams). I guess fifth place will qualify me for that one again next year, but fifth isn't too good. Congratulations to the winners of the other two leagues, Blue and Dutch, respectively.
The keeper league? I took over a three-year-old team abandoned by an owner who had made bad decisions and brilliantly took it all the way to...11th place! Wow. In an 11-team league(#2324-11 teams)! The good news? I get the first draft choice next year.
Roto Totals= 3 teams, 1 championship, 1 top-three finish.
Head2Head: I played in nine leagues, eight leagues either Fantasy Kings or FK/Rotokingdom leagues and one league run by an FK buddy each year. The results:
#699-16 teams-FK vs RK redraft-Finished 4th. DAtaris17 won this one
#35006-10 teams-dynasty- Lost in finals, 4-5, to SC BallerJ
#4036-12 teams-redraft- Lost in finals, 4-5, to ih8temichigan
#48497-12 teams-keeper-Finished 5th. SC BallerJ won this one, too.
#47162-12 teams-keeper-Radar Won in finals, 7-2 over CYoshi
#16267-14 teams-salary-Finished 5th. Dutch won this one.
#2332-16 teams-redraft-Finished 3rd. Payton won this one
#13876-12 teams-redraft-Radar Won in finals, 7-2 over Dutch
#32713-10 teams-dynasty-Lost in finals, 4-5, to Santa
(That last one really hurt, because I knew I had the best team. But every time I would play Dirk and Josh Howard, the Little General would bench them and every time I started them, he didn't play 'em. I also benched Bosh in the last game because, when I played him previously, Mitchell benched him. I also started Iverson but Karl shut him down. I just barely lost a couple of cats that I would have one if just once, for instance, Avery Johnson would have played his stupid players! AAAAArgh!)
H2H Totals- 9 teams (all 9 made playoffs), 2 championships, 6 top-three finishes.
Combined Totals- 12 teams, 3 championships, 7 top-three finishes.
But I lost three finals by the painful 4-5 score, plus lost a playoff for third place by a 4-5 score. It was a year I just couldn't quite get over the hump when I had a chance to really have a kick-butt season. On the other hand, I won way more than my share against veteran fantasy players, so I suppose the season was still a success...just not what I hoped it would be.
~~~~~~~
Fantasy Kings versus RotoKingdom
Final standings regular season
Fantasykings 777-723-12
Rotokingdom 720-774-18
Top Six individual finishers
DAtaris17 - Champ (RK)
Dutch- 2nd (FK)
The Doorknobman - 3rd (RK)
Radar - 4th (FK)
Santa - 5th (FK)
Mikl - 6th (FK)
Congratulations to the overall champion DAtaris17, and to the winning forum, Fantasy Kings!!!
~~~~~~~
My fearless playoff predictions for round one:
Pistons over Magic (ya think?)
Cavs over Wizards (ya think?)
Raptors over Nets (I was gonna pick Nets, but Bargnani is back)
Bulls over Heat (everybody should want to watch this one!)
Mavs over Warriors (But GS is better than three teams in the East)
Suns over Lakers (Kobe vs world)
Spurs over Nuggets (Hmmm. Nuggs could surprise me)
Rockets over Jazz (won't be pretty either way)
The first two Eastern Conference series should be largely unwatchable. Pistons and Cavs have no business even coming close to losing. The other two are your basic coin flips. Nets know the playoffs but the Raps are a better team and with home court. The Bulls are better than the Heat but lost that last game so that lost momentum might kill them off.
But every Western Conference matchup has some cache. Even the Warriors are playing great ball now and it is a shame for them that they wind up playing Dallas. I was rooting for the Lakers to lose and to see a Suns-Warriors first round matchup. C'mon, 139-136!
Monday, April 16, 2007
No bull! You can still save your bullpen...
Yes, right now the Chicago White Sox are hitting like they are all named Erstad, not just one of them. You don't win many games hitting .222 (as of April 15th stats). But it has been darned cold, the Sox are only one game under .500, it's not time to panic. Instead, fantasy fans, it is time to focus on the opportunities available in the Chicago bullpen!
Bobby Jenks is the closer on this team, a hero of the 2005 World Championship and the provider of 41 saves to his owners last year. But his somewhat violent delivery has resulted in problems for him this season. He's a handful when he can mix in that big breaking curveball with 99 MPH heat, but he is only cranking it up to the 91-94 range this year and his elbow is sore. Allow me to share what they are saying on Baseball Prospectus:
Bobby Jenks thinks his problem is mechanical. Allow me to bestow a Mr. Obvious Award on Mr. Jenks here. The problem is mechanical, but also has a physical component. When Jenks gets sore, he drops his elbow and puts more pressure on the shoulder through his powerful, violent delivery. When he drops his elbow, he gets sore. Sore or not, this vicious circle is one that has to be broken by either keeping his mechanics solid or by not pitching until he doesn't have the soreness. The Sox would much rather that Jenks could figure out the former option in concert with pitching coach Don Cooper. One suggestion has been that he's actually not pitching enough, and that a temporary move to a non-closing role where he could get a couple innings of work for a week or two would help iron out the problems. The Sox have plenty of power arms to accommodate such a move, and Ozzie Guillen is the type of out-of-the-box thinker to try it, but with the media watching, that's a tough move to make.
Here is the opportunity - Mike MacDougal, former Royal's closer once dubbed "Mac the Ninth"
has been busy racking up "holds" as a caddy for Jenks, but he is certainly capable of closing. He may well be available on your waiver wire, time to think about grabbing him in leagues of 12 or more owners where he is still a free agent. It is a no-brainer if you have a roster spot inhabited by someone you are down on right now (hello, Hensley owners!!!).
But wait, there's more! David Aardsma is pitching lights-out right now, leading all major league bullpenners with 15 strikeouts in 10 innings. Heck, there were only 17 starters with more K's than the 25-year-old Aardsma! Imagine if Jenks gets shut down and MacDougal takes over the closer job? Can you see Aardsma getting those holds Mac used to get, plus the occasional spare save? In deep leagues Aardsma is worth grabbing until AL batters prove they can hit him.
~~~~~~~
Once again, the old adage is proving true. Don't overpay for saves on draft day, there will always be shuffling and changes during the season. Now that B J Ryan is off to the disabled list for 4-6 weeks at a minimum, now that Brad Lidge has been banished to middle innings, now that Eric Gagne has come back (for now), now that whoever is closing for Florida right this minute has taken over for whoever was closing for them yesterday, etc....if you are alert you can grab the next candidate and maybe strike gold. The people who ignored rumors of Dustin Hermanson's comeback and grabbed David Weathers at the end of drafts have more saves than the guys who reached and took Chad Cordero in the middle rounds. Both Justin Frasor and Shaun Marcum look like the beneficiaries of save opportunities in Ryan's absence.
The truth is, being an average closer isn't asking for much, just get through one stinking inning without letting the other guy score, or maybe only score once. The great ones, like Rivera, yeah, they are something special. But for every Brian Fuentes there are two more pitching in middle relief who could probably do the same thing, given the chance. Then again, there are also two more Jorge Julio-types who are oil to closing's water and should be kept far from the ninth inning. Some can't take the pressure...
Need a closer? Keep an eye on the current closers by checking the buzz around the league. Striketwo.net is a good source of team blog posts and postings on smart blogs like The Hardball Times. Rumors of lost velocity and sore elbows should send you to the team rosters to figure out who will take over when Joe Closer is demoted/sent to the DL so you are ready to grab the new hero before the other guys in your league. Sometimes a couple of high-profile blown saves are enough to wheel in the Wheelers and edge the Lidges out of the way. Another good source of team and player information, besides the standard sports sites, is SportSpyder.
Did you know that Joakim Soria is closing for Kansas City right now and that Al Reyes is the resident closer in Tampa Bay? How many teams drafted either of those guys before the season? Probably exactly zero. Reyes has as many saves at the moment as Papelbon and Hoffman combined! Yeah, it won't last, but if you were alert and grabbed Reyes when he was first given the job that is four saves more than you had otherwise. If you are on a roto team that is desperate for saves, grabbing Soria gives you a fighting chance at one now and then, since even the Royals win a game sometimes.
The other way to go is to grab somebody else's Aardsma (Broxton, Capps, Zumaya, etc.) and hope that the nominal closer breaks down or begins losing his ability to get guys out. No way does Jim Leyland take Todd Jones out of the closer role, but if something befalls Jones do you really think Leyland is going to trust Fernando Rodney with the job???? Takashi Saito is doing great in LA, but he's also about 370 years old, so Broxton might get his shot sometime soon. There are a few very effective middle relievers out there who have the stuff to get the job done, so ahead of any rumors you just might take one of them, enjoy the low Whips and ERA's they give you and hope against hope they get a chance to close before year's end.
So maybe you don't really need to trade Barry Zito to get Joe Borowski right now. It's not time to panic, yet, just time to be alert and do your research and be ready to pull the trigger when your next opportunity arises.
~~~~~~~
Don't Panic! In one of my fantasy leagues, catcher Russell Martin and slugger Adam Dunn have more stolen bases than Brian Roberts, Carl Crawford, Felipe Lopez and Corey Patterson put together! In another league, my double-play tandem of Kinsler and Rollins have out-homered Beltran, Dye, Glaus, Swisher, Atkins, Overbay and Martinez put together! It's early. It's not reasonable to expect ARod to hit seven times as many HR as Ryan Howard over the course of the season, even though that is the case right now (April 15th statistics). I'm not telling you not to drop Oliver Perez after one bad outing, but do it because you believe he'll never find the strike zone and not for just one game. Heck, his first game he didn't walk anybody!
But be decisive! I am guilty of giving up on Clay Hensley after just three starts, but he looks bad and I think he is a DL trip waiting to happen. I saw an opportunity to cash in on an ignored player and dumped Hensley and I betcha someone grabs him based on last year's numbers. I didn't even think he was worth casting out as trade bait. But, if I owned Jason Schmidt I'd be trying real hard to trade him for almost anyone else, I believe that guy is just fried! I'd be doing the same if I owned J J Putz right now, too. I don't think his elbow is going to hold up...and that takes us back to the bullpen discussion again. Is Chris Reitsma the guy Hargrove will trust to take over the closing reins? If you are desperate for saves, maybe you grab the guy and stash him if you can? I'm just saying...
I'm out like Shawon Dunston waving at a breaking ball low-and-outside!!!!!!
Bobby Jenks is the closer on this team, a hero of the 2005 World Championship and the provider of 41 saves to his owners last year. But his somewhat violent delivery has resulted in problems for him this season. He's a handful when he can mix in that big breaking curveball with 99 MPH heat, but he is only cranking it up to the 91-94 range this year and his elbow is sore. Allow me to share what they are saying on Baseball Prospectus:
Bobby Jenks thinks his problem is mechanical. Allow me to bestow a Mr. Obvious Award on Mr. Jenks here. The problem is mechanical, but also has a physical component. When Jenks gets sore, he drops his elbow and puts more pressure on the shoulder through his powerful, violent delivery. When he drops his elbow, he gets sore. Sore or not, this vicious circle is one that has to be broken by either keeping his mechanics solid or by not pitching until he doesn't have the soreness. The Sox would much rather that Jenks could figure out the former option in concert with pitching coach Don Cooper. One suggestion has been that he's actually not pitching enough, and that a temporary move to a non-closing role where he could get a couple innings of work for a week or two would help iron out the problems. The Sox have plenty of power arms to accommodate such a move, and Ozzie Guillen is the type of out-of-the-box thinker to try it, but with the media watching, that's a tough move to make.
Here is the opportunity - Mike MacDougal, former Royal's closer once dubbed "Mac the Ninth"
has been busy racking up "holds" as a caddy for Jenks, but he is certainly capable of closing. He may well be available on your waiver wire, time to think about grabbing him in leagues of 12 or more owners where he is still a free agent. It is a no-brainer if you have a roster spot inhabited by someone you are down on right now (hello, Hensley owners!!!).
But wait, there's more! David Aardsma is pitching lights-out right now, leading all major league bullpenners with 15 strikeouts in 10 innings. Heck, there were only 17 starters with more K's than the 25-year-old Aardsma! Imagine if Jenks gets shut down and MacDougal takes over the closer job? Can you see Aardsma getting those holds Mac used to get, plus the occasional spare save? In deep leagues Aardsma is worth grabbing until AL batters prove they can hit him.
~~~~~~~
Once again, the old adage is proving true. Don't overpay for saves on draft day, there will always be shuffling and changes during the season. Now that B J Ryan is off to the disabled list for 4-6 weeks at a minimum, now that Brad Lidge has been banished to middle innings, now that Eric Gagne has come back (for now), now that whoever is closing for Florida right this minute has taken over for whoever was closing for them yesterday, etc....if you are alert you can grab the next candidate and maybe strike gold. The people who ignored rumors of Dustin Hermanson's comeback and grabbed David Weathers at the end of drafts have more saves than the guys who reached and took Chad Cordero in the middle rounds. Both Justin Frasor and Shaun Marcum look like the beneficiaries of save opportunities in Ryan's absence.
The truth is, being an average closer isn't asking for much, just get through one stinking inning without letting the other guy score, or maybe only score once. The great ones, like Rivera, yeah, they are something special. But for every Brian Fuentes there are two more pitching in middle relief who could probably do the same thing, given the chance. Then again, there are also two more Jorge Julio-types who are oil to closing's water and should be kept far from the ninth inning. Some can't take the pressure...
Need a closer? Keep an eye on the current closers by checking the buzz around the league. Striketwo.net is a good source of team blog posts and postings on smart blogs like The Hardball Times. Rumors of lost velocity and sore elbows should send you to the team rosters to figure out who will take over when Joe Closer is demoted/sent to the DL so you are ready to grab the new hero before the other guys in your league. Sometimes a couple of high-profile blown saves are enough to wheel in the Wheelers and edge the Lidges out of the way. Another good source of team and player information, besides the standard sports sites, is SportSpyder.
Did you know that Joakim Soria is closing for Kansas City right now and that Al Reyes is the resident closer in Tampa Bay? How many teams drafted either of those guys before the season? Probably exactly zero. Reyes has as many saves at the moment as Papelbon and Hoffman combined! Yeah, it won't last, but if you were alert and grabbed Reyes when he was first given the job that is four saves more than you had otherwise. If you are on a roto team that is desperate for saves, grabbing Soria gives you a fighting chance at one now and then, since even the Royals win a game sometimes.
The other way to go is to grab somebody else's Aardsma (Broxton, Capps, Zumaya, etc.) and hope that the nominal closer breaks down or begins losing his ability to get guys out. No way does Jim Leyland take Todd Jones out of the closer role, but if something befalls Jones do you really think Leyland is going to trust Fernando Rodney with the job???? Takashi Saito is doing great in LA, but he's also about 370 years old, so Broxton might get his shot sometime soon. There are a few very effective middle relievers out there who have the stuff to get the job done, so ahead of any rumors you just might take one of them, enjoy the low Whips and ERA's they give you and hope against hope they get a chance to close before year's end.
So maybe you don't really need to trade Barry Zito to get Joe Borowski right now. It's not time to panic, yet, just time to be alert and do your research and be ready to pull the trigger when your next opportunity arises.
~~~~~~~
Don't Panic! In one of my fantasy leagues, catcher Russell Martin and slugger Adam Dunn have more stolen bases than Brian Roberts, Carl Crawford, Felipe Lopez and Corey Patterson put together! In another league, my double-play tandem of Kinsler and Rollins have out-homered Beltran, Dye, Glaus, Swisher, Atkins, Overbay and Martinez put together! It's early. It's not reasonable to expect ARod to hit seven times as many HR as Ryan Howard over the course of the season, even though that is the case right now (April 15th statistics). I'm not telling you not to drop Oliver Perez after one bad outing, but do it because you believe he'll never find the strike zone and not for just one game. Heck, his first game he didn't walk anybody!
But be decisive! I am guilty of giving up on Clay Hensley after just three starts, but he looks bad and I think he is a DL trip waiting to happen. I saw an opportunity to cash in on an ignored player and dumped Hensley and I betcha someone grabs him based on last year's numbers. I didn't even think he was worth casting out as trade bait. But, if I owned Jason Schmidt I'd be trying real hard to trade him for almost anyone else, I believe that guy is just fried! I'd be doing the same if I owned J J Putz right now, too. I don't think his elbow is going to hold up...and that takes us back to the bullpen discussion again. Is Chris Reitsma the guy Hargrove will trust to take over the closing reins? If you are desperate for saves, maybe you grab the guy and stash him if you can? I'm just saying...
I'm out like Shawon Dunston waving at a breaking ball low-and-outside!!!!!!
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Knicks are the new "punks", can Joey Crawford be far behind??
Charlie Rosen of FoxSports summed up the Knicks this way: "Punk players, a punk coach, and an owner who loves to sing the blues."
Yeah, I suppose the fundamentally crabby Rosen often takes shots at people, but he is one of a number that is legion in this case. The Knicks actually cried when losing a game to Chicago very badly last week when the Bulls tried to score that 100th point for the fans (Fans get a free burger when the Bulls score 100 or more). Hey, Knicks, you don't want to look bad in the fourth quarter? Hustle during the first three quarters and win the freakin' game!
What poetic justice it will be now that the Knicks are out of the playoffs, for Chicago will get their (lottery) pick and reap the benefits of the Knick's ineptitude, while the Knicks have to settle for the much lower Chicago pick in return! Perhaps Chicago will get an actual NBA lowpost scoring threat. Eddy Curry? Until he stops making four turnovers for every assist, he will continue to be an overrated player on an underachieving team. You double-team him, he is lost...you cannot depend on him to rebound and he certainly isn't much of a shot-blocker. Other than that, yeah, he's pretty good!
~~~~~~~
Not again!!!!!!!!
2006 WAS THE YEAR OF THE OFFICIAL in that, in the case of both the Super Bowl and the NBA Finals the officials, rather than the players, decided who was going to win. We have thankfully avoided that fate thus far in 2007......but what comes next is a bad sign....
Joey Crawford Wants to Hop in an Octagon with Tim Duncan
After Raja Bell clotheslined him in a playoff game last year, Kobe Bryant said, "If you want to train and hop in an octagon, we can train and hop in an octagon. That’s not basketball." Bryant and Bell seem to be on amicable terms now but a new NBA feud has emerged: official Joey Crawford versus the Spurs' Tim Duncan. The problem began when Crawford apparently became convinced that thousands of fans bought tickets and millions of viewers turned on their televisions not to watch Duncan play versus Dirk Nowitzki but rather to see Crawford prove how tough he is. First, Duncan was whistled for a very questionable offensive foul (this call was not made by Crawford). Duncan was taken out of the game and play continued. Crawford felt that Duncan was mocking him from the bench (Duncan later denied saying anything), so he hit Duncan with a technical foul. Then, about a minute later, the Spurs' Fabricio Oberto was called for a foul. Duncan was still on the bench and he started laughing and then he covered his face with a towel. Crawford pointed to Duncan and ejected him. Duncan first looked stunned. Then, when he realized that Crawford was serious, Duncan appeared to direct an epithet toward Crawford before leaving the court. The only player who I remember being ejected in a similar way is Rasheed Wallace, who was tossed by Ron Garretson several years ago for staring at him in a "funny" way--but at least Sheed was actually on the court at the time, though that one seemed a bit harsh as well, even if Sheed is a hothead.
Duncan's ejection for laughing was strange enough but that was just the start. After the game, Duncan said of Crawford, "He looked at me and said, 'Do you want to fight? Do you want to fight?' If he wants to fight, we can fight. I don't have any problem with him, but we can do it if he wants to. I have no reason why in the middle of a game he would yell at me, 'Do you want to fight?'" Duncan added, "He came into the game with a personal vendetta against me. It had to be because I didn't do anything the entire game. I said three words to him and the three words were, 'I got fouled' on a shot. ... That's all I said to him the entire game."
On the other hand, Crawford contended "he was complaining the whole game...And then he went over to the bench and he was over there doing the same stuff behind our back. I hit him with one (technical) and he kept going over there, and I look over there and he's still complaining. So I threw him out." Crawford added, "He called me a piece of (expletive). Is that nothing?" But Duncan appeared to say that after he was ejected, not before.
It will be very interesting to see how the NBA handles this. I was not there, so I don't know what was said back and forth throughout the game--but it certainly seemed that Crawford ejected one of the league's best players because he was laughing. How can Crawford know what Duncan was laughing about? Duncan was not even on the court. Maybe Gregg Popovich told a funny joke. Maybe somebody passed gas. How can an official eject someone for laughing?
The outcome of this game could have affected who gets the number two seed in the Western Conference. The Phoenix Suns had the inside track but had not clinched that spot until the Spurs went on to lose. San Antonio led 74-68 when Duncan was ejected and got outscored 23-12 the rest of the way. I don't believe in conspiracies but this is the kind of thing that fuels reckless talk. Then there is the matter of the above comments from Duncan and Crawford. The NBA cannot sweep this under the rug. Either Crawford abused his power, challenged a player to a fight and wrongly ejected him or Duncan is lying. If the first is true, then Duncan's technical fouls should be rescinded (at least the second one, for sure) and Crawford should be suspended. If the second is true, then one of the NBA's top players has slandered a veteran official by falsely accusing him of challenging him to a fight; that would seem to warrant a heavy fine, at least according to previous precedents. It will be very interesting to see how Commissioner David Stern deals with this volatile situation. Can the NBA afford to have Crawford officiate a Spurs playoff game?
It's a shame that this happened, because it takes the focus off of a very competitive game between the NBA's two best teams (San Antonio has the league's best record since the All-Star break and has been easily handling the Suns for years, so the Suns are not the second best team in my book). Dallas Coach Avery Johnson said before the game that he would not use any of his players for more than 26 minutes (the Mavericks have already clinched home court advantage, so this game was technically meaningless for them) but five Mavericks ended up playing longer than that--despite Duncan missing the entire fourth quarter. In other words, despite what anybody said, both teams looked at this game as a potential playoff preview and each wanted to get the upper hand against the other. The game was close throughout and very well played--but instead of seeing an exciting conclusion with both teams playing at full strength all we got was Crawford trying to prove that he's the boss. San Antonio made some key mistakes down the stretch and the Mavericks won, 91-86. Dirk Nowitzki and Devin Harris led Dallas with 21 points each, while Tony Parker had a game-high 23 points for the Spurs. Duncan finished with 16 points, seven rebounds, six assists and two blocked shots.
If the NBA can verify that what Duncan said about Crawford is true let's hope that David Stern shows Crawford who is really the boss so that a fiasco like this does not happen during the playoffs.
There is a precedent for Stern taking strong action here. Jake O'Donnell was a well-respected official who, for unknown reasons, intensely disliked Clyde Drexler. O'Donnell ejected Drexler from a playoff game for no apparent reason and never worked another NBA game. The "official" story (no pun intended) is that O'Donnell retired--but who has ever heard of one of the top officials in a sport suddenly quitting early in the playoffs and then announcing his retirement several months later? O'Donnell's ejection of Drexler was so egregious--and it came after O'Donnell refused to shake Drexler's hand before the tip-off--that the NBA had no choice but to get rid of him. Obviously, this was hardly something that the league wanted to become a big story, so it is easy to understand why the NBA never admitted to firing O'Donnell. I wonder if, in this age of intense media coverage, the NBA will be able to find such an easy way out of this mess.
I understand that The Big Fundamental is something of a whiner, but he does it consistently and with G-rated language. The rest of the referee world just listens briefly and then trots away. But Crawford? Wow. Probably Phoenix was going to nail down that second seed anyway but the Spurs were winning this game until Joey C got crazy and tossed maybe the best all-around player in basketball out of the game. I'm just sayin'...
~~~~~~~
Three more days for the basketball playoffs. Of my 12 teams, I am right now only guaranteed 1 championship, although I am in the finals in a few leagues. Injuries killed me in a couple of leagues but this was really a bad year for injuries and other teams suffered as well. I'll post my results after the Wednesday final games are in the bank. Then come the Real Playoffs, yeah!
*Update* Referee Joey Crawford suspended!
NEW YORK (AP) -- NBA referee Joey Crawford was suspended indefinitely by commissioner David Stern on Tuesday for his conduct toward Tim Duncan, who contends the ref challenged him to a fight.
Crawford ejected Duncan from a game in Dallas on Sunday, calling a second technical foul on the San Antonio Spurs star while he was on the bench.
"He looked at me and said, 'Do you want to fight? Do you want to fight?"' Duncan said. "If he wants to fight, we can fight. I don't have any problem with him, but we can do it if he wants to. I have no reason why in the middle of a game he would yell at me, `Do you want to fight?"'
Crawford's suspension will last at least through the NBA finals.
It will be pretty hard for Crawford to ever work a Spurs game again under these circumstances. Will we see him "retire" soon as a result?
Yeah, I suppose the fundamentally crabby Rosen often takes shots at people, but he is one of a number that is legion in this case. The Knicks actually cried when losing a game to Chicago very badly last week when the Bulls tried to score that 100th point for the fans (Fans get a free burger when the Bulls score 100 or more). Hey, Knicks, you don't want to look bad in the fourth quarter? Hustle during the first three quarters and win the freakin' game!
What poetic justice it will be now that the Knicks are out of the playoffs, for Chicago will get their (lottery) pick and reap the benefits of the Knick's ineptitude, while the Knicks have to settle for the much lower Chicago pick in return! Perhaps Chicago will get an actual NBA lowpost scoring threat. Eddy Curry? Until he stops making four turnovers for every assist, he will continue to be an overrated player on an underachieving team. You double-team him, he is lost...you cannot depend on him to rebound and he certainly isn't much of a shot-blocker. Other than that, yeah, he's pretty good!
~~~~~~~
Not again!!!!!!!!
2006 WAS THE YEAR OF THE OFFICIAL in that, in the case of both the Super Bowl and the NBA Finals the officials, rather than the players, decided who was going to win. We have thankfully avoided that fate thus far in 2007......but what comes next is a bad sign....
Joey Crawford Wants to Hop in an Octagon with Tim Duncan
After Raja Bell clotheslined him in a playoff game last year, Kobe Bryant said, "If you want to train and hop in an octagon, we can train and hop in an octagon. That’s not basketball." Bryant and Bell seem to be on amicable terms now but a new NBA feud has emerged: official Joey Crawford versus the Spurs' Tim Duncan. The problem began when Crawford apparently became convinced that thousands of fans bought tickets and millions of viewers turned on their televisions not to watch Duncan play versus Dirk Nowitzki but rather to see Crawford prove how tough he is. First, Duncan was whistled for a very questionable offensive foul (this call was not made by Crawford). Duncan was taken out of the game and play continued. Crawford felt that Duncan was mocking him from the bench (Duncan later denied saying anything), so he hit Duncan with a technical foul. Then, about a minute later, the Spurs' Fabricio Oberto was called for a foul. Duncan was still on the bench and he started laughing and then he covered his face with a towel. Crawford pointed to Duncan and ejected him. Duncan first looked stunned. Then, when he realized that Crawford was serious, Duncan appeared to direct an epithet toward Crawford before leaving the court. The only player who I remember being ejected in a similar way is Rasheed Wallace, who was tossed by Ron Garretson several years ago for staring at him in a "funny" way--but at least Sheed was actually on the court at the time, though that one seemed a bit harsh as well, even if Sheed is a hothead.
Duncan's ejection for laughing was strange enough but that was just the start. After the game, Duncan said of Crawford, "He looked at me and said, 'Do you want to fight? Do you want to fight?' If he wants to fight, we can fight. I don't have any problem with him, but we can do it if he wants to. I have no reason why in the middle of a game he would yell at me, 'Do you want to fight?'" Duncan added, "He came into the game with a personal vendetta against me. It had to be because I didn't do anything the entire game. I said three words to him and the three words were, 'I got fouled' on a shot. ... That's all I said to him the entire game."
On the other hand, Crawford contended "he was complaining the whole game...And then he went over to the bench and he was over there doing the same stuff behind our back. I hit him with one (technical) and he kept going over there, and I look over there and he's still complaining. So I threw him out." Crawford added, "He called me a piece of (expletive). Is that nothing?" But Duncan appeared to say that after he was ejected, not before.
It will be very interesting to see how the NBA handles this. I was not there, so I don't know what was said back and forth throughout the game--but it certainly seemed that Crawford ejected one of the league's best players because he was laughing. How can Crawford know what Duncan was laughing about? Duncan was not even on the court. Maybe Gregg Popovich told a funny joke. Maybe somebody passed gas. How can an official eject someone for laughing?
The outcome of this game could have affected who gets the number two seed in the Western Conference. The Phoenix Suns had the inside track but had not clinched that spot until the Spurs went on to lose. San Antonio led 74-68 when Duncan was ejected and got outscored 23-12 the rest of the way. I don't believe in conspiracies but this is the kind of thing that fuels reckless talk. Then there is the matter of the above comments from Duncan and Crawford. The NBA cannot sweep this under the rug. Either Crawford abused his power, challenged a player to a fight and wrongly ejected him or Duncan is lying. If the first is true, then Duncan's technical fouls should be rescinded (at least the second one, for sure) and Crawford should be suspended. If the second is true, then one of the NBA's top players has slandered a veteran official by falsely accusing him of challenging him to a fight; that would seem to warrant a heavy fine, at least according to previous precedents. It will be very interesting to see how Commissioner David Stern deals with this volatile situation. Can the NBA afford to have Crawford officiate a Spurs playoff game?
It's a shame that this happened, because it takes the focus off of a very competitive game between the NBA's two best teams (San Antonio has the league's best record since the All-Star break and has been easily handling the Suns for years, so the Suns are not the second best team in my book). Dallas Coach Avery Johnson said before the game that he would not use any of his players for more than 26 minutes (the Mavericks have already clinched home court advantage, so this game was technically meaningless for them) but five Mavericks ended up playing longer than that--despite Duncan missing the entire fourth quarter. In other words, despite what anybody said, both teams looked at this game as a potential playoff preview and each wanted to get the upper hand against the other. The game was close throughout and very well played--but instead of seeing an exciting conclusion with both teams playing at full strength all we got was Crawford trying to prove that he's the boss. San Antonio made some key mistakes down the stretch and the Mavericks won, 91-86. Dirk Nowitzki and Devin Harris led Dallas with 21 points each, while Tony Parker had a game-high 23 points for the Spurs. Duncan finished with 16 points, seven rebounds, six assists and two blocked shots.
If the NBA can verify that what Duncan said about Crawford is true let's hope that David Stern shows Crawford who is really the boss so that a fiasco like this does not happen during the playoffs.
There is a precedent for Stern taking strong action here. Jake O'Donnell was a well-respected official who, for unknown reasons, intensely disliked Clyde Drexler. O'Donnell ejected Drexler from a playoff game for no apparent reason and never worked another NBA game. The "official" story (no pun intended) is that O'Donnell retired--but who has ever heard of one of the top officials in a sport suddenly quitting early in the playoffs and then announcing his retirement several months later? O'Donnell's ejection of Drexler was so egregious--and it came after O'Donnell refused to shake Drexler's hand before the tip-off--that the NBA had no choice but to get rid of him. Obviously, this was hardly something that the league wanted to become a big story, so it is easy to understand why the NBA never admitted to firing O'Donnell. I wonder if, in this age of intense media coverage, the NBA will be able to find such an easy way out of this mess.
I understand that The Big Fundamental is something of a whiner, but he does it consistently and with G-rated language. The rest of the referee world just listens briefly and then trots away. But Crawford? Wow. Probably Phoenix was going to nail down that second seed anyway but the Spurs were winning this game until Joey C got crazy and tossed maybe the best all-around player in basketball out of the game. I'm just sayin'...
~~~~~~~
Three more days for the basketball playoffs. Of my 12 teams, I am right now only guaranteed 1 championship, although I am in the finals in a few leagues. Injuries killed me in a couple of leagues but this was really a bad year for injuries and other teams suffered as well. I'll post my results after the Wednesday final games are in the bank. Then come the Real Playoffs, yeah!
*Update* Referee Joey Crawford suspended!
NEW YORK (AP) -- NBA referee Joey Crawford was suspended indefinitely by commissioner David Stern on Tuesday for his conduct toward Tim Duncan, who contends the ref challenged him to a fight.
Crawford ejected Duncan from a game in Dallas on Sunday, calling a second technical foul on the San Antonio Spurs star while he was on the bench.
"He looked at me and said, 'Do you want to fight? Do you want to fight?"' Duncan said. "If he wants to fight, we can fight. I don't have any problem with him, but we can do it if he wants to. I have no reason why in the middle of a game he would yell at me, `Do you want to fight?"'
Crawford's suspension will last at least through the NBA finals.
It will be pretty hard for Crawford to ever work a Spurs game again under these circumstances. Will we see him "retire" soon as a result?
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
Baseball addendum - lineups
- Notes below from Baseball Prospectus:
- Cool new trend that I hope catches on: using non-traditional #2 hitters. The Blue Jays stuck Lyle Overbay in the #2 slot, the Reds returned Adam Dunn there, the Mariners elevated Adrian Beltre, and the Indians put Trot Nixon behind Grady Sizemore. The Dodgers, missing Rafael Furcal, even went with Russell Martin in the second spot. All of these are better solutions than a contact-hitting middle infielder with no discernible power or on-base ability.
- After all of the discussion about whether Pat Burrell could protect Ryan Howard, Charlie Manuel decided to bat Howard third and Chase Utley fourth. Tactically, this is a fairly big mistake, as the edge given up by allowing lefty specialists free shots at back-to-back left-handed hitters dwarfs the effect of the “protection” Utley offers Howard. It’s not about the two players’ skill sets—both have improved against southpaws—but about the skill sets of the pitchers they’ll be facing in any late-game high-leverage situations.
The Phillies now have a lineup that goes S/S/L/L/R/R/R/R, which is suboptimal at best, ridiculous at worst. As it is, going Rowand/Helms/Barajas in the 6-8 slots is just asking for trouble; the current alignment makes that problem one batter worse, not to mention setting Pat Burrell up for failure, as he’ll basically never see a left-handed pitcher in any game-relevant situation. Much of the contrived controversy over Burrell is related to this factor—he rarely gets to bat with the platoon advantage when it matters—rather than any shortcomings in his character.
Predictions! Baseball edition.
What a great time of year, with championship games in College Basketball going down, the NBA heading for the playoffs and opening day beginning the baseball season!
The Ohio State - Florida game was a game many of us predicted as being the championship game before the season started and I certainly did, although at the time I thought the Buckeyes would be ready to dethrone the Gators by season's end. Boy, was I wrong! (I also thought Tennessee would get the championship on the woman's side, but that is kind of like picking the Yankees every year, isn't it?)
The Pros are not so easy to forecast!
MLB -
AL East
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox (Wild Card)
3. Blue Jays
4. Devil Rays
5. Orioles
The poor Blue Jays would be contenders in the other divisions but you can't see them passing both heavyweights in the same year. The Yankees bludgeon foes to death, while Boston getting Dice-K should be just what they need to make the playoffs. Baltimore is hopeless for now unless Cabrera, Bedard and Loewen turn into Glavine, Smoltz and Maddux. The Rays will be kicking butt in 2010, this is just their toddler stage. One continuing story for this year will be ARod versus Yankee fans - will they show their appreciation as he has another All-Star season or will they continue to villify him, causing him to go elsewhere in free agency next season? A sad note is the twilight of the career of Jason Varitek. The heart-and-soul of the Bosox just can't hit a lick anymore. Thumpers like Ortiz and Ramirez can carry him for awhile but what happens when he can't hit his weight any longer? This is also the year Bernie Williams saddled up the horse and rode into the sunset. Yet the more things change in the AL East, the more they remain the same...
AL Central
1. Indians
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. White Sox (and I am a Sox fan!)
5. Royals
Losing Liriano and sending Garza to the minors was enough for me to drop the Twins down and to put Cleveland at the top. Realistically, all of these teams have a shot except Kansas City. Kenny Rogers being gone made the Tigres an also-ran in my book and the White Sox have too many starting pitchers who are losing their stuff (Contreras, Buerhle and perhaps Vasquez), plus one who always only has one good half (Garland). Cleveland believes Sabathia is a Cy Young candidate and that Jo Bo can anchor the bullpen. They know they have some people who can score runs in bunches. This division should be a great race!
AL West
1. Angels
2. Athletics
3. Rangers
4. Mariners
Yes, the Angels have injury woes and so do the Athletics. Yet there are nothing but flawed teams in this division. This is a division where everyone thinks they can contend because there is not one outstanding team out there. I just have to give the edge to the Angels due to their outstanding bullpen. The unknown factor here is Ron Washington, new Rangers skipper. The Rangers always seem to be lacking in pitching, however, Wash has impressed everyone with his attitude and knowledge. In a division with no power team, maybe he gets the Rangers over the top?
NL East
1. Phillies
2. Mets (Wild Card)
3. Braves
4. Marlins
5. Nationals
Phils and Mets, flip a coin. They each have multiple MVP candidates in lineups that can torment pitchers. Both teams have pitching issues, with Pedro out at least until the All-Star Game for the Mets and the Phils currently leaning on 87-year-old Tom Gordon as closer. The Braves are a popular choice to return to the top, but I don't buy it. Their pitching doesn't look good enough to save the day and their offense is too dependent upon Chipper Jones, a guy who gets both chipped and broken on a regular basis. The Marlins are due for a team-wide Sophomore Slump and the Nationals are just bad. Manny Acta, if he can keep this team from losing 100 games, should be NL Manager of the Year.
NL Central
1. Cubs
2. Brewers
3. Cards
4. Astros
5. Reds (my other favorite team...could be a long year)
6. Pirates
Yes, maybe I pick the Reds low as kind of a reverse-jinx. I can envision a scenario in which the Reds win the division, but it involves career years from the shaky starting pitching staff and the emergence of a reliable closer out of a sea of middle relievers. I give the Cubs credit for putting together a powerful daily lineup and just enough pitching to prevail over the Brew Crew, who probably will be the favorites to win in 2008. The Cards may be the defending champs but they kind of did it with mirrors last year and many of those mirrors are cracked now. Age and injuries have decimated the outfield. The Astros should only be true contenders if Roger signs by June at the latest and who knows what he'll do? The Pirates...ah, the Pirates! They think Jack Wilson is a good shortstop and insist upon batting their best hitter fifth rather than third. They deserve what they get!
NL West
1. Padres
2. D-backs
3. Dodgers
4. Rockies
5. Giants
The Giants? All player lockers have been widened to make way for the walkers. The Rockies are dangerous but their bullpen is simply awful. The Diamondbacks have the kind of talent to win it all, but they are still finding themselves. The Dodgers find themselves depending on too many guys with "DL" listed as one of their eligible positions. Bud Black and the Padres have the pitching depth to withstand the rest and finish at the top of the heap.
That is my forecast and I am sticking with it!
The Ohio State - Florida game was a game many of us predicted as being the championship game before the season started and I certainly did, although at the time I thought the Buckeyes would be ready to dethrone the Gators by season's end. Boy, was I wrong! (I also thought Tennessee would get the championship on the woman's side, but that is kind of like picking the Yankees every year, isn't it?)
The Pros are not so easy to forecast!
MLB -
AL East
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox (Wild Card)
3. Blue Jays
4. Devil Rays
5. Orioles
The poor Blue Jays would be contenders in the other divisions but you can't see them passing both heavyweights in the same year. The Yankees bludgeon foes to death, while Boston getting Dice-K should be just what they need to make the playoffs. Baltimore is hopeless for now unless Cabrera, Bedard and Loewen turn into Glavine, Smoltz and Maddux. The Rays will be kicking butt in 2010, this is just their toddler stage. One continuing story for this year will be ARod versus Yankee fans - will they show their appreciation as he has another All-Star season or will they continue to villify him, causing him to go elsewhere in free agency next season? A sad note is the twilight of the career of Jason Varitek. The heart-and-soul of the Bosox just can't hit a lick anymore. Thumpers like Ortiz and Ramirez can carry him for awhile but what happens when he can't hit his weight any longer? This is also the year Bernie Williams saddled up the horse and rode into the sunset. Yet the more things change in the AL East, the more they remain the same...
AL Central
1. Indians
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. White Sox (and I am a Sox fan!)
5. Royals
Losing Liriano and sending Garza to the minors was enough for me to drop the Twins down and to put Cleveland at the top. Realistically, all of these teams have a shot except Kansas City. Kenny Rogers being gone made the Tigres an also-ran in my book and the White Sox have too many starting pitchers who are losing their stuff (Contreras, Buerhle and perhaps Vasquez), plus one who always only has one good half (Garland). Cleveland believes Sabathia is a Cy Young candidate and that Jo Bo can anchor the bullpen. They know they have some people who can score runs in bunches. This division should be a great race!
AL West
1. Angels
2. Athletics
3. Rangers
4. Mariners
Yes, the Angels have injury woes and so do the Athletics. Yet there are nothing but flawed teams in this division. This is a division where everyone thinks they can contend because there is not one outstanding team out there. I just have to give the edge to the Angels due to their outstanding bullpen. The unknown factor here is Ron Washington, new Rangers skipper. The Rangers always seem to be lacking in pitching, however, Wash has impressed everyone with his attitude and knowledge. In a division with no power team, maybe he gets the Rangers over the top?
NL East
1. Phillies
2. Mets (Wild Card)
3. Braves
4. Marlins
5. Nationals
Phils and Mets, flip a coin. They each have multiple MVP candidates in lineups that can torment pitchers. Both teams have pitching issues, with Pedro out at least until the All-Star Game for the Mets and the Phils currently leaning on 87-year-old Tom Gordon as closer. The Braves are a popular choice to return to the top, but I don't buy it. Their pitching doesn't look good enough to save the day and their offense is too dependent upon Chipper Jones, a guy who gets both chipped and broken on a regular basis. The Marlins are due for a team-wide Sophomore Slump and the Nationals are just bad. Manny Acta, if he can keep this team from losing 100 games, should be NL Manager of the Year.
NL Central
1. Cubs
2. Brewers
3. Cards
4. Astros
5. Reds (my other favorite team...could be a long year)
6. Pirates
Yes, maybe I pick the Reds low as kind of a reverse-jinx. I can envision a scenario in which the Reds win the division, but it involves career years from the shaky starting pitching staff and the emergence of a reliable closer out of a sea of middle relievers. I give the Cubs credit for putting together a powerful daily lineup and just enough pitching to prevail over the Brew Crew, who probably will be the favorites to win in 2008. The Cards may be the defending champs but they kind of did it with mirrors last year and many of those mirrors are cracked now. Age and injuries have decimated the outfield. The Astros should only be true contenders if Roger signs by June at the latest and who knows what he'll do? The Pirates...ah, the Pirates! They think Jack Wilson is a good shortstop and insist upon batting their best hitter fifth rather than third. They deserve what they get!
NL West
1. Padres
2. D-backs
3. Dodgers
4. Rockies
5. Giants
The Giants? All player lockers have been widened to make way for the walkers. The Rockies are dangerous but their bullpen is simply awful. The Diamondbacks have the kind of talent to win it all, but they are still finding themselves. The Dodgers find themselves depending on too many guys with "DL" listed as one of their eligible positions. Bud Black and the Padres have the pitching depth to withstand the rest and finish at the top of the heap.
That is my forecast and I am sticking with it!
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