2007 Mock NFL Rookie draft
If you are in a dynasty league, you have a rookie draft each year in your league to bring in the new blood. Rookie drafts often focus on running backs and that has to be taken into consideration. Dynasty leagues must consider the long range prognosis for prospects balanced against immediate performance. Therefore talent alone is not the only consideration.
Here is my totally biased and opinionated take on a mock rookie draft for 2007, for a 12-team league with standard scoring settings:
Round One
1) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota RB – Peterson is doomed to RBBC hell for 2007, sharing time with Chester Taylor. He’s had two collarbone injuries in the last two years. But you probably draft him first in a dynasty league because he is the best bet to become a 1500 yard, 15 touchdown stud.
2) Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo RB– This is more of a 1A pick. Buffalo has given Lynch the keys to the kingdom if he can handle being the feature back. He is a pass-catching, Westbrook-style back who should be gold in PPR leagues and likely the most productive rookie back in 2007. But he has less upside than Peterson.
3) Calvin Johnson, Detroit WR – What, the Lions took another receiver at #1???!!! Yep, and this time they were right. Johnson has all the tools to be a Moss without the attitude, or maybe more likely a TO without the attitude. He is big and fast and talented and has produced on the field.
4) JaMarcus Russell, Oakland QB – It’s a dynasty league, and he has towering talent. Oakland is due for a few smart personnel and coaching decisions and this was one of them. He’ll be frustrating this season, but give him three years….
5) Brandon Jackson, Green Bay RB – Unless Vernand Morency has improved a lot, Jackson can start for the Pack. Opportunity makes Jackson a better pick than, say, a Pittman or Michael Bush. He should have staying power as a third down back in any case.
6) Dwayne Jarrett, Carolina WR – They cut Keyshawn to make a spot for this guy, so he should be starting no later than week three. Kind of high for a receiver, but if he will give you 60 and 850 this year and 80 and 1000 down the road?
7) Michael Bush, Oakland RB – Dominic Rhodes is suspended for four games, giving Bush a chance to move up the line and get carries. Justin Fargas shouldn’t be much of a hindrance. But this is contingent on Michael’s twice-broken leg healing in time for the season. He still has great talent as a future pick if healthy.
8) Chris Henry, Tennessee RB – The running back is still king in fantasy football and Henry has a chance to either start or split carries with LenDale White, who has failed to take ahold of the job. Opportunity trumps talent, so while Henry may not be one of the five best backs in the draft, he has one of the five best opportunities to succeed.
9) Lorenzo Booker, Miami RB – No Ricky Williams means touches will be available for Booker. He is good enough to be a feature back but Ronnie Brown is healthy and incumbent. Therefore Booker is more of a future pick.
10) Kenny Irons, Cincinnati RB – Much like Booker, Irons is blocked from being the feature back (barring injuries) but could be the top dog in the right situation.
11) Brady Quinn, Cleveland QB – He is touted by his college coach as being the total package. He comes to a situation where he will have to fight for the job, and may well be primarily a bench guy in his rookie year. There is no doubt that Cleveland views him as the starter down the road even if it isn’t this year. He has enough upside to be worthy of a first round pick.
12) Craig Davis, San Diego WR – This is a big, strong guy that is being given a real shot at starting opposite Vincent Jackson this season. Even if he splits time at split end, is Eric Parker or Malcolm Floyd good enough to hold him off for long? It would seem pretty unlikely….
Round Two
1) Brian Leonard, St Louis RB – Of course, Steven Jackson is the man. However, it appears that the Rams envision Leonard as some kind of combination of Marshall Faulk, Tony Richardson and Chris Cooley. Yep, they are very high on him. He probably will get some time as a third down back and at fullback. What, you think Travis Minor is significant competition? The Rams probably realize that Steven Jackson needs a down off now and again and Leonard can handle that job nicely.
2) Greg Olsen, Chicago TE – He is in an offense that wants to feature the tight end and he has the hands and speed to be a threat to opposing defenses. Of course, one does remember who is responsible for throwing to him. If Rex Grossman is actually improving he will be getting the ball to Olsen early and often this year.
3) Robert Meacham, New Orleans WR – One of those risk/reward picks. He has talent, he is in an offense that is going to rack up numbers, there is opportunity. He came to minicamp out of shape, so his attitude has to change or he’ll be far behind guys like Devery Henderson and Terrance Copper. But you know that the Saints didn’t throw a first-round pick at him to play special teams.
4) Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis WR – He has a great chance to take over as the third wide receiver. Peyton Manning likes having a slot receiver be involved in the game plan, so it is up to Gonzo to prove he can get separation in the NFL. He has the hands and is already a good pattern guy.
5) Ted Ginn, Miami WR – Is he the Dolphins version of Hester? Ginn is a future pick, since he is possibly not going to be ready for the beginning of the season and has a ways to go as a polished receiver. You draft him for his athleticism and hope it translates into stardom later on. He could be a classic third year receiver prize down the road. Once on the field, he should at least threaten to give you a return TD or two, depending on your league settings.
6) Drew Stanton, Detroit QB – I believe he will be polished for a couple of years under Mike Martz and then be ready to take the controls as starter. He has the upside to be a big producer in a good system. Martz knows offense. Detroit didn’t draft this guy to hold a clipboard.
7) Zach Miller, Oakland TE – Russell-to-Miller could be like Green-to-Gonzalez one day. Miller is physical and tough and talented and has little in the way on the depth chart to keep him off the field. I may have him too low here, in fact. It will be an upset if he isn’t the starter as a rookie for Oakland.
8) Antonio Pittman, New Orleans RB – Deuce and Reggie. I know. But this is a talented guy and could easily take over the Deuce role when (if?) contract troubles send the Deuce elsewhere. Only injuries will make him relevant this year, though.
9) Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City WR – I think he has to go before the end of the second round. Kansas City is a great opportunity for receivers, since they don’t have much right now. Samie Parker has shown us that he is merely pedestrian and Eddie Kennison is pretty much on fumes. So, although I am not incredibly impressed with Bowe, he has the chance to step up and get reps right away. That counts for something.
10) Steve Smith, New York WR – Another guy with the opportunity to play big minutes. The Giants seem to see him as at least as likely as Sinorice Moss to get reps opposite Burress if Toomer is still hurting. Toomer is no spring chicken anyway, so Smith may be able to establish himself as the heir apparent if nothing else. He had an impressive mini-camp.
11) Sidney Rice, Minnesota WR – A futures pick, Rice is only 20 years old with worlds of athleticism. Having an inexperience quarterback won’t help him much this season, but then again he probably won’t play much in 2007.
12) Dwayne Wright, Buffalo RB – Someday Wright and Lynch may be the Deuce and Reggie of Buffalo. At this point I would rather draft a back who may someday be productive than grab one of the 4-5 other decent wide receiver prospects.
Honorable mentions: Jacoby Jones, Laurent Robinson, James Jones, J L Higgins, Jason Hill, Mike Walker and Paul Williams are all rookie wide receivers one could say something positive about. Trent Edwards and Kevin Kolb might merit a look as quarterbacks to groom.